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Growing apprehensions exist over the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a fierce rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have often been tense. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

In 1998, a military clash erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and implied the wish to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on 16 September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Region

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an conversation that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British military before turning into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 the ruler terminated this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle followed, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to conflict in 1998.

Even though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries remained at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a declaration that the conflict was finished – a action that won Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous civil war in the northern region.

But relations have subsequently deteriorated again.